AL West: Underrated stars stepping forward for Angels

Baseball Betting Lines

07/06/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim manager Mike Scioscia knows who his most valuable players are, though they may not be recognized as easily on a national scale. Nevertheless, they are the guys who deliver the clutch hits, make the run-saving grabs, and keep opposing lineups in check.

One of those players is center fielder Torii Hunter, who was selected by his peers to play in his fourth career All-Star game, albeit in a reserve role.

Hunter backed up his All-Star nod with a monstrous offensive output in Sunday's 11-0 thumping of the Kansas City Royals, belting two home runs and tying a career-high with seven RBI. The veteran center fielder has gone deep 14 times this season in addition to his 60 RBI to earn a spot in this month's Midsummer Classic at his home ballpark, Angel Stadium.

Also on Sunday, Joel Pineiro matched a career-high by recording his sixth straight win. Pineiro is pitching to a 2.08 ERA during his streak, and he has lasted six innings or more in 15 of 17 starts.

Meanwhile, fellow starter Jered Weaver's All-Star snub has turned quite a few heads. The Angels' ace leads the American League with 124 strikeouts and ranks seventh with a 2.82 ERA.

Yankees manager Joe Girardi, who will coach the AL squad, does have three more pitcher openings on his roster -- New York's CC Sabathia and Oakland's Trevor Cahill both started Sunday and will not be available, while Boston's Clay Buchholz is on the disabled list with a leg injury. But that doesn't automatically open the door for Weaver, as names like Andy Pettitte (NY), Justin Verlander (DET) and Andrew Bailey (OAK) have all earned strong consideration.

Teammates Joe Saunders and Torii Hunter were among those caught off guard by the news of Weaver's roster exclusion.

"It's the dumbest thing I've ever heard," Saunders told The Orange County Register. "You can quote me on that."

Another player who has certainly made a case to play in the Midsummer Classic is Howie Kendrick, who has knocked in 50 runs while playing air-tight defense at second base. Kendrick hit .301 in June and saw his chances aided when Boston's Dustin Pedroia recently broke his left foot. However, New York's Robinson Cano was named the AL starter at second base after leading the voting for virtually the duration of the balloting.

While Hunter will get to soak in the All-Star festivities next week, Kendrick and Weaver represent two very vital pieces to the Angels' success. That can also be said for Pineiro and shortstop Erick Aybar, who is on a 13-for-32 (.406) tear since returning from a left knee injury. All-Stars or not, these are the players who must continue to step up if the Angels are to close the 3 1/2 game gap separating them and the first-place Texas Rangers.

RANGERS' LINEUP BOASTS MAJOR STAR POWER

When opposing teams prepare to face the Texas Rangers, they seldom spend a lot of time talking about the Rangers' pitching or defense. Rather, it is the Rangers' ridiculously imposing lineup that continues to grab everybody's attention. And judging by the American League All-Star roster, that's a sentiment shared by players, coaches and fans alike.

Texas is poised to send each of its Nos. 1-5 hitters to next week's All-Star game, including two starters in cleanup hitter Vladimir Guerrero (.328, 18 HR, 70 RBI) and No. 5 hitter Josh Hamilton (.340, 20 HR, 61 RBI). And if he hadn't missed a chunk of the season with a hamstring injury, No. 6 hitter Nelson Cruz (.305, 10 HR, 39 RBI) would almost certainly be making his second consecutive All-Star appearance. Cruz became the first player in Rangers history to blast seven homers through 11 games before being slowed by a bad wheel.

Second-year shortstop and leadoff man Elvis Andrus (.290, 22 SB) earned his first All-Star nod as a players' selection, while No. 3 hitter Ian Kinsler (.304) replaces Boston's Dustin Pedroia (DL) at second base. For Kinsler, this marks his second All-Star selection since winning the AL Rookie of the Year in 2006.

Third baseman and No. 2 hitter Michael Young is vying for his seventh consecutive All-Star game, though he'll need fan support to beat out the four other players competing for the AL Final Vote. The club's all-time leading hitter is in the midst of another standout season, hitting .306 with 11 homers, 51 RBI and a team-high 24 doubles.

Collectively, that's a murderer's row lineup for even elite pitchers to have to navigate. And it's the main reason why the Rangers still hold a 3 1/2 game lead in the AL West despite a 1-4 record thus far in July.

THE LEE SWEEPSTAKES HAVE BEGUN

According to a report from AOL Fanhouse on Monday, the Minnesota Twins have thrown their hat into the mix for starting pitcher Cliff Lee by offering two coveted prospects for the All-Star southpaw.

The prospects are outfielder Aaron Hicks and catcher Wilson Ramos. The 20- year-old Hicks was the 14th overall pick in the 2008 draft class and has logged a .792 OPS in three minor league seasons. The 22-year-old Ramos has struggled with a .208 batting average for Triple-A Rochester, though he hit .317 last year between Rookie and Double-A ball.

In 13 starts this season, Lee has compiled a 2.34 ERA to go along with 89 strikeouts and only six walks. To put that ratio into perspective, he has logged five complete games, or one less than the amount of free passes he has issued. Just as expected, he has formed an elite 1-2 punch atop the rotation with Felix Hernandez, who has posted 15 quality starts in 18 outings this season. But with Seattle 14 games behind Texas in the division standings, it has become increasingly unlikely the team will hold on to Lee, who becomes a free agent at season's end.

A'S HOPING FOR HEALTHY ARMS AFTER THE BREAK

For the past decade, the Oakland Athletics' formula for success has hinged on getting stellar pitching without breaking the bank. The same holds true this year, although their primary concern at the moment is getting some guys healthy.

Dallas Braden is penciled in to return to the rotation after the All-Star break. He has been battling stiffness in his left elbow and has not taken the mound since June 22. Braden was placed on the DL July 3. He has not recorded a win since tossing a perfect game on May 9.

Meanwhile, Brett Anderson is targeting a July 19 return from left elbow tendinitis. He threw a simulated game on July 4 and will build on his throwing routine every five days. Anderson was also sidelined from April 25 to May 28 with the same injury.

Trevor Cahill (8-2, 2.74) is the team's lone All-Star representative, although you could certainly have made a case for closer Andrew Bailey being on the roster. Bailey has converted 17 of 20 saves while posting a 1.59 ERA on the season,

This marks the ninth straight year that the A's have sent at least one pitcher to the All-Star game.

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Big Ten Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Michigan State, Indiana
Work left to do: Illinois, Purdue, Michigan, Iowa

Behind the big two, the pecking order might be in a bit of flux. Has Michigan State passed Indiana after handling the Hoosiers in East Lansing? Where is Illinois in that mix? What looked like a four-big league last week could be morphing into five -- and even six is not unthinkable at this point if everything breaks right.

Should be in:

Michigan State [21-8 (8-6), RPI: 20, SOS: 15] The Spartans made it four-for-four on the homestand, a gigantic accomplishment that leaves them in extremely good shape. MSU is only 1-6 on the road and is at Michigan and at Wisconsin to close things out, meaning the date with the Wolverines on Tuesday looms very, very large. Beating Texas early will hold up well, as will the rout of Bradley and the win over BYU, but will 8-8 be enough? It very well could be, as the computer numbers are good, but why chance it?

Indiana [18-9 (8-6), RPI: 24, SOS: 32] Hmm ... good thing the last two are at Northwestern and home to Penn State, because IU might want to get both to feel completely safe after dropping its third in the last four, fading after halftime at Michigan State. Who knew the best nonconference win would be over Southern Illinois, which is a gift that keeps on giving for the Hoosiers. The win over Wisconsin also looks good on the mantel.

Work left to do:

Illinois [21-9 (9-6), RPI: 31, SOS: 25] A good performance at Penn State leaves the Illini in pretty good shape. Can they go to Iowa and take care of business to really look on their way? That's a huge game, as there is a possible cluster of teams that will end at 9-7. Illinois beat Bradley, but has lost to Xavier. A 9-7 mark and a semifinals trip in Chicago could be enough with the computer profile hanging in there, but it would be better not to mess around, clinching at least a tie for third.

Purdue [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 47, SOS: 28] Couldn't get it done at Iowa, but did win at Northwestern to put 9-7 squarely in sight. Where does that leave the Boilermakers, though? Even if they beat Minnesota and Northwestern at home, that won't help the computer numbers. Nonconference wins over Virginia, DePaul and Oklahoma are solid, but not spectacular. The Boilers very well might need an upset in the B10 quarters to have a legit claim.

Michigan [19-10 (7-7), RPI: 55, SOS: 53] Well, Michigan did what it needed to do, winning at Minnesota to take control of its fate. The Wolverines have Michigan State and an already-wrapped-up-the-league Ohio State at home to close, so the chances are there. Win both and we can talk. There is no marquee win yet in the profile, and the Wolverines were splattered in several games against name opponents. A mediocre computer profile fueled by a lack of road wins isn't helping, either.

Iowa [16-12 (8-6), RPI: 80, SOS: 64] For the sake of being complete, we'll add Iowa, this season's Stanford. It's plausible that the Hawkeyes could get to 10-6 (at Penn State, vs. Illinois left), but where does that leave them after a gruesome nonconference performance where the best win was over ... Toledo? Iowa State? Cornell?? If they get to 10-6, we can start to look at what they need to do in the B10 tourney, although my gut sense is that they would need to make the final and have knocked off Ohio State or Wisconsin on the way to have any real claim.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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