2009 CFL Eastern Preview - Winnipeg Blue Bombers

Football Betting Lines

06/23/2009 - Winnipeg, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - FACTS & FIGURES: Division - East. 2008 Record: 8-10. Playoff Result: Lost, 29-21, to Edmonton in division semifinals. Stadium - Canada Inns Stadium. Capacity - 29,533. Colors: Blue and Gold

The good news for the Winnipeg Blue Bombers last season was that they finished in second place in the CFL's Eastern Division. Unfortunately, the club posted an 8-10 record during the regular season, not exactly cause for celebration, and the team was bounced from the playoffs in the semifinal round. Sometimes offseasons can be boring and quiet. However, that wasn't the case for the Blue Bombers.

First, head coach Doug Berry was shown the door, and Brendan Taman resigned his general manager position. Mike Kelly took over as head coach, and his first major duty is deciding who will start at quarterback.

Kevin Glenn was released, so the quarterbacks battling for the nod from Kelly are Stefan Lefors and Ryan Dinwiddie. Lefors played very little as the third- string quarterback in Edmonton, but he showed enough ability in his limited playing time that Winnipeg wanted to bring him aboard. As for Dinwiddie, he has been a backup for the Blue Bombers and now hopes to prove that he can carry the load.

There is no question that he has talent, but an unproven quarterback will always be heavily scrutinized.

Whichever quarterback wins the job, he will be playing behind an offensive line that has some fresh faces. Dominic Picard and Alexandre Gauthier, a pair of reliable linemen, left via free agency. Dan Goodspeed was also lost in a trade, so it is hard to imagine that the line will not suffer.

Fred Reid, Derrick Armstrong and Romby Bryant do bring explosiveness to the offense. Reid, a smallish tailback at 5-8 and 185 pounds, Reid finished sixth overall in the CFL in 2008 with 709 rushing yards on 101 carries. Armstrong led the team with 81 receptions to go along with 1,010 yards and five touchdowns, while Bryant had 65 grabs for 1,206 yards and nine scores.

Defensively, Winnipeg has enough talent in place to hold opponents in check. James Johnson is a new addition to the secondary, and Bombers' fans will likely remember him as the guy who intercepted Dinwiddie three times in the 2007 Grey Cup.

Keep an eye on Barrin Simpson, who missed most of last season with an injury. The linebacker is back on the field, and that's bad news for opponents.

Overall, Winnipeg has plenty of talent, but questions at quarterback keep us from picking the Blue Bombers to win the East Division.

Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Finish: Second

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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